Saturday, February 23, 2008

The war in IRAQ

Did you every look at a situation and just say Wow.....
A hard core liberal friend was lamenting the U.S. responsibility for everything wrong on the planet. All bad things are the fault of George Bush. I thought about his passionate rants, but concluded that George Bush was dealing with the symptoms. He is not the cause.

Yes we are responsible for the cause, sort of….

Let’s roll the clock back to 1948 when imperial rule in the Middle East ends, and throughout most of the world. The U.S. under the leadership of Harry Truman sought to end the reach and power of empires including France, Germany and Britain. Prior to the end of WWII, Germany fielded SS divisions originating from middle-eastern states including Iraq, Iran, Syria, Jordan… There is a reason the president of Iran says Hitler was a good man stopped short of achieving his goals.

http://notendur.centrum.is/~snorrigb/mufti4.htm

Now for our responsibility, we ended imperialism and required paying the middle-eastern Islamic dictatorships for their oil. Trillions of dollars have been pumped into the middle-east and have found their way into radical regimes. These funds are the stimulus for terrorism and dreams of world domination. We foolishly thought they would use the money to raise the standard of living of their people.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/opec.html">http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/opec.html

Roll the clock forward, 1960 and the “Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was founded in Baghdad, Iraq, in September 1960”. The sale and distribution of oil is now a monopoly.

…..Wow this is the only area in the current world where we have an inverted market. Instead of consumers driving competition for goods and services, we have suppliers driving competition to purchase. How stupid is that? Without our money they have oil. Oil is difficult to eat, doesn’t drink well. You can’t drive it, or wear it. After only a few days of production, if distribution stopped, virtually every OPEC member would be dealing with over flowing storage tanks and panic shutdown of wells. Without oil money, dictators would be herding goats, not buying a their 61st palace on the French Riviera. The ironic part of all this is that the consuming countries make and support the market, including ocean born distribution.

Problem:
The problem is an unrestricted consumer oil market with restricted competition to oil supply. The resultant runaway revenue is being used to fund terrorism and military aggression. The Middle-East is a collection of surrogates, manipulated conveniently by Islamic leaders. Fighting a ground war against Iraq and replacing Saddam Hussein sends a clear message that we can replace a dictator. This is the same message that the Islamic brotherhood sends when removing one of their dictators such as Anwar al-Sadat. Beyond the message, the winning of a war against any one surrogate is immaterial.

It doesn’t matter who we leave in power. As soon as we leave, the Islamic brotherhood will assassinate them, and empower their favorite dictator. Each time we extend our stay as part of nation building we simply lose face. We appear weakened by compassion. Each loss of face must be offset by an increasing show of force, to earn back "respect". This is a game which only extends the power struggle. We need to either show overwhelming force to the entire region, or define terms under which the struggle is redefined.

Solution:

1) Ending the current military confrontation(symptomatic).

As Theodore Roosevelt said "Walk softly and carry a big stick".

Walking softly will require funding Iraq "restoration" projects without U.S. oversight and meddling. Our presence should become nearly invisible within the next 12 months.

We have currently shown overwhelming force in Iraq via the surge. Our point has been made, respect has been earned. The Islamic dictators have turned to attacking softer targets such as France(last summer). We should position a strong strike force in Kurdistan or Northern Iraq. We must migrate a large portion of our naval forces to the the ocean areas ajacent to the middle east as part of preparations for a possible naval blockade. This force will be the big stick.

2) Restoring balance to the world's oil market(causal).

The more interesting and effective question is redefining the struggle.

Redefining the struggle requires forming a cartel equivalent to OPEC, but which is consumer based. This cartel will define the terms under which our market and distribution services may be accessed, the pricing for oil and terms under which payment will be rendered. The consumer cartel will control the oceans and distribution of oil. Just as OPEC forms the basis for financial and global terrorism, our cartel will form the basis for control of OPEC's financial and global terrorism. The key to this solution is 100% control of the oceans and willingness of member nations to withold payments.

Joint naval operations will escort oil tankers to their designated ports for product delivery. Oil deliveries will be catalogued and invoiced. Payments will be net 90 days. All payments currently in the “pipeline” will be witheld for 90 days. Payments will be released pending verification of supplier conformance to the consumer cartels policies. OPEC is free to enter into negotiations with the cartel regarding pricing. Proceeds from oil sales will be reduced to cover the reparation costs of world wide terrorism. This will constitute a tax on the world's richest dictators to assist the victims of their terrorism.

This will be tough to implement, for the first 180 days or so. OPEC's dictators will not take kindly to anyone challenging their monopoly. Consumers will try to cheat, under the influence of heavy OPEC incentives. Terrorist attacks will ramp up. The end is worth the means. Staying the course will restore balance to the world's oil market and eliminate the need for future military confrontation. Military confrontation is simply the George Bush's response to the symptom of an out of balance oil market.


This solution requires:
1) Oil consumer cartel to have and maintain control of the oceans (done),
2) Willingness of member countries to suffer an initial delay in oil deliveries (stock up before hand),
3) A military presence in the middle east (Iraq or Kurdistan done),
4) Willingness of member countries to manage float on a trillion dollars or so(done)
5) Willingness to play hard ball with religious dictators (there will be an initial increase in terrorism) particularly in European countries

George

Sunday, February 3, 2008

Illegal Aliens and Immigration Reform

Here we are 2008 and we are still having the same old debate. My great grandfather and his father (who were Native American on my mother's side) were sitting around the campfire and...the conversation probably sounded something like this: "I think we should get our guns and bows and arrows and shoot the next bunch, scalp 'em and then they'll think twice about sneaking onto our lands ..." "Then we'll start rounding them up and throwing them out". Roll the clock forward 40 years. "Wow that didn’t work we need a new approach, …I think we should call them immigrants, ... agreed".



The problem:
Morally, we cannot allow 20,000,000 people to live in this country with civil rights only one step removed from slavery. They work in the shadows, for lessor pay and under questionable conditions. Whether administered by pre-civil war southern democrats, or elites in modern day California or corporate conglomerates, slavery and semi-slavery should not be permissible. We the people cannot allow this. We embraced immigration after the civil war and welcomed workers who learned the language, merged into our culture, and defined by their existence the term "American". The 14th Amendment (1866) granted citizenship to all persons born or naturalized within the United States. The Sherman Antitrust Act (1890) protected their rights to engage in free and fair commerce. Illegal immigration must be stopped to protect the rights of the illegal immigrant. The problem is not people sneaking into the country through our airports, armed with visas and passports, who simply decide not to go home. It is people walking/riding/swimming across our southern border.


So shoot 'em, scalp 'em or round 'em up and send 'em home.



”That's not going to work. I think we should call them guest workers ... agreed. “



The solution:

Don't round anyone up. Don't fine or imprison anyone who is not guilty of a crime other than illegal immigration. Embrace countries and their citizens who are good neighbors and restrict U.S. entry by countries and their citizens who are not. Re-generate the U.S. industrial base, and do it in a way that raises both our and our good neighbors standard of living. As Mr. Spock used to say "Live long and prosper".



Step One:

We must implement tax reform as defined in my prior post on the topic. Replace all payroll taxes (not the income tax) with a national sales tax. This will allow manufacturing to return within our borders and to flourish. We can target investment credits for re-industrialization at certain geographic areas: rust belt states and Mexican/American border states, etc. We’ll need a lot of bilingual Americans for the re-industrialization effort along the Mexican/American border. Wonder were we can find them?



Step Two: We must enact legislation to revise the 14th amendment to grant citizenship only to those born in the U.S. to one or more parents who are U.S. citizens. This will eliminate the anchor baby problem. Not everyone born in the U.S. needs to become an U.S. citizen. We are no longer seeking people to settle and tame a vast wilderness. For those born here of foreign nationals, once they reach the age of consent (18), they may petition for a grant of U.S. citizenship, pending a criminal background investigation.


Step Three: We must reform our immigration policy with respect to countries that share geographic borders and achieve and retain a favored nation status (Canada and Mexico, Cuba?). These countries would be allowed to participate in an unrestricted guest worker program. A participant in the unrestricted guest worker program must be a citizen of a participating country (Mexico/Canada). They need to present appropriate proof of citizenship, at the time of entry and at the time of employment application. They will be eligible to receive an employment card and apply for guest worker benefits/privileges within their state of employment. Each state may define its own set of benefits/privileges. For states that do not, the guest worker would be eligible for the same benefits/privileges as a legal state resident, but those benefits/privileges would be time limited (expiration 90 days after completion of employment). As part of the application process for employment and/or benefits/privileges any guest worker who is in violation of state or federal law (high crimes and misdemeanors) may be subject to deportation/procecution. Guest workers may travel freely between their home country and the U.S. Any guest worker who completes 10 years in that status may begin the naturalization process and become eligible for citizenship upon completion. Lets be clear on this point. We are not a multi-cultural mess. To become an American, it takes work. Learn the language, learn the civics, obey the law and merge into the main stream. We have distinct and proud sub-cultures, but citizens are American first. If you don't want to be American first, then don't become a citizen.



Step Four:Participating countries must enjoin the U.S. in a "secure border" initiative which stops the flow of illegal immigrants (other nationalities/criminals) from crossing into the U.S. from Mexico/Canada. Failure to do so may result in loss of guest worker privileges for their citizens.

Step Five:
Guest worker privileges are reciprocal between the participating countries. U.S. citizens may choose to work in Mexico/Canada as guest workers.


George

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Universal Health Care

Universal Health Care
Should it be a government run catastrophe; or an infrastructure core component for a modern society?

The left would say that socialism's time has come. The right would say only a fool would task the government with managing a third of our gross national product and determining our quality of life.As usual, I have to side with the middle on this one. Left to the lefties, our health care system will simply transfer wealth from the people to the government and their minions (politicians, lobbyists, bureaucrats, and lawyers). Right thinkers will transfer the people’s wealth to corporate health care conglomerates and their minions (politicians, lobbyists, bureaucrats, and lawyers). We are already funding all the minions plus health care. We can surely afford just health care. Do we really care about paying the minions?

We’ll discuss this further as part of the solution.

Step back into history and view this problem from a correct vantage point. When the pioneers were settling the west, they gathered up their possessions, tools and energy and headed out in covered wagons. The stopped along the way to fight Indians (my great grandfather and his friends), search for food, water and occasional entertainment. Upon arrival at their destination, they built their barn and maybe a sod or log cabin. They and their livestock could live in the barn if necessary. Each settler was expected to support themselves and build and maintain their own farm or ranch. Unfortunately from time to time, catastrophe could and did strike their barn. Neighbors would arrive in mass to restore and rebuild the barn as best they could to prevent further loss and suffering.

Back to the future, we are no longer an agrarian society. Our endeavors depend on our health and its corresponding labor output to build and maintain our families and wealth. For better or worse, health has replaced the barn. When a catastrophic illness strikes, we need our neighbors. We shouldn’t need them every day or all the time. We need them for the “big one”, the catastrophe.

Problem:Health care costs too much.

Note: Lobbyists and their minions have already won the debate by defining health care as health insurance. Politicians from the left/right, and their minions, have been so successful at shaping this issue that we commonly refer to this problem as the need for universal health insurance or affordable health insurance. The taxpayers need to make up the difference. Minions need to be paid.

Health care in the U.S. is abundantly available. Visit any hospital or clinic and they have spare beds, chairs and service providers. Appointments can be made for this morning, afternoon or evening. Doctors and nurses are first rate. Visit any pharmacy and have your prescription filled in 15 minutes or less.

Abundance and quality of service is not the problem.The problem is that a visit to the doctor for routine care is beyond affordability for the poor and lower middle class. They bypass the $135 doctor visit and head for the “free” emergency room. There the $135 doctor visit is billed by the service conglomerates for $5000-$50,000. The doctor still receives about $60. Minions get the rest. Wouldn’t it be great to be a minion?

Solution:

The solution is to lower the cost of health care and to provide basic wellness services to everyone. A healthy society is far more affordable.

Step one is to empower the people to stop being extorted by minions. Routine health care should be affordable, on the order of $25 or $35 dollars per visit. This can be achieved by not paying two classes of minions: 1) lobbyists, 2 lawyers. We will define a class of service provider called a general/family wellness practitioner. This type of practitioner will not be allowed to perform any type of major surgical procedure. Their practice will treat/diagnose and manage the basic medical needs of the average family/individual and will be limited to procedures/treatment commensurate with meeting those needs. Emergency care, beyond their charters, will not be denied if dictated by extra ordinary circumstances (a heart attack occurs on the sidewalk out side). Doctors and their family practices will be liable for malpractice, but the maximum aggregate fines per doctor will not exceed $10,000(annual) and $30,000 lifetime. After 30,000 in fines the doctor’s license will l be reviewed and possibly revoked. Doctors will be allowed to advertise/publish rates and will be subject to standard business practice complaints/evaluations.

Analogy: medical retail mom and pop….WalMart…enabled by limited tort reform

Step two is to empower the people to stop being extorted by minions. As we explored earlier, the problem won’t be the routine health care issues such as flu, sinusitis, childhood immunizations, etc. The problem is the big one. Once the service conglomerates have you in “their” system, and you have been diagnosed with cancer, heart disease, organ failure, etc.; your barn has just burned down. Bankruptcy, loss of retirement funds, home foreclosure, all the good stuff lawyers, insurance conglomerates, politicians and lobbyists spend their time dreaming about has just fallen on you. We the people allow this, really? Universal health care should be part the national plumbing (as my friend Cuyler so aptly describes it). In the case of the big one (expenses > 50,000 per year for non elective services), a simple system of universal health care should be provided. Each person over the age of 18 should pay into a national health catastrophic insurance fund. Initially the insurance will be the dreaded “Government Option”. The premium will be determined by annual assessment and evaluation. Ideally, the charge should be on the order of $10-15 up to $35-40 per month (needs tested ability to pay). For those who cannot work/afford the minimal monthly fee, their state government will make the contribution on their behalf (i.e., the mentally disabled, physically impaired). Surplus revenue will be carried forward to lower the overall system costs, deficits accrued will be carried forward as charges against future premiums.

Analogy: medical equivalent of automobile liability insurance. Comprehensive and luxury policies may build upon basic liability or the consumer is free to use cash, health savings accounts, etc…States providing their own portable catastrophic plans may opt out of “Government Option”.

Step three is to empower the people to shop for medical services or to purchase health insurance as they wish. Health insurance, Health Savings Accounts (HAS) or simply paying the doctor directly are all now possible. The consumer is back in control and basic wellness services are a market commodity. Should a company and or state/federal government offer health insurance, it would by supplemental. The market can now bind consumer with provider because the elimination of catastrophic loss frees consumers and providers. Let the free market negotiations and competition begin. Health insurance costs will decline since catastrophic insurance is already provided, and basic services are abundant and lower cost. Medical information is the personal property of the consumer. Popular search engines (Google, MSN, etc) will be encouraged to provide services for the recording and, if authorized public search of medical records by authorized medical service providers. Any medical provider may publish the file of their patient, and review what they have published. Only those providers authorized by the patient may search files they did not originate. A patient may search their own information at any time.

Analogy…Google search for health records

Step four is to increase the availability of family practitioners. Medical school scholarships will be available to any academically qualified student, willing to work in a family practice for a minimum of 5 years after graduation (up to 250,000). The goal is to promote a health society. With people now responsible for the cost of their own health, healthy people will become the norm.

Now for the universal coverage part, everyone is now covered for the big one (catastrophic care). All families and individuals should be able to afford basic wellness, except the most impoverished. They will simply be given a coupon book (3 per individual/per year, renewable on demand, available at every emergency room or wellness clinic). Coupons(physical or electronic) can be redeemed at any family practice provider. Generic drugs will be provided as prescribed by the family practitioner, and paid for by the individual, for those to poor to pay a coupon will be provided and reimbursed by surplus catastrophic funds or taxes.

Minions, minions, minions.... they will lose a lot of money. Do we feel bad? Should we grieve for the lawyers, politicians, and lobbyists of the world? I think not, after all they will have lower cost health care.

Availability:
Coverage ~99% (some will do anything not to participate). Even those who dodge, can still get a free coupon and wellness care (needs tested).

Funding:
Self funding via portable, catastrophic health insurance

42 Billion increase in annual marginal revenue(we already subsidize all the catastrophic cost).(140,000,000 * 25 dollars per month(avg) * 12 months)

1 Dollar per month catastrophic health insurance premium surcharge for the wellness clinics/medical education start up costs ~1.6 billion. (140,000,000 * 1 * 12)

Cost reduction:
~7..10 Trillion over the next 5 years. 30 percent of GDP(12 trillion) * .3 reduction in cost.

Eliminates over-prescription of services

Eliminates wasteful emergency room visits

Reduction in mal practice insurance/operating costs.

Reduction in prescription drug costs.

Competitive market place reductions in service pricing for routine care.


George