I listened with only mild interest as the announcers on MSNBC proclaimed it a "perfect storm". The culmination of the bursting housing bubble, panic in the financial markets, layoffs, unemployment….All propelling Barack Obama’s poll numbers to higher levels. It is sad that we have come to the point of manipulating our economy for political gain, but it is a repeatable and durable pattern.
Bill Clinton rode to victory on “it’s the economy stupid”; just after defense contracts were canceled in every major state, driving up unemployment (the so called peace dividend).
Turn about is fair play; so George Bush brought Dick Cheney and big oil into the fray to eek out a victory over Al Gore amid fears of economic collapse due to sky rocketing oil and gasoline prices.
2008 and the perfect storm is caused by changing the asset ratios for the primary and secondary mortgage markets, and an FHA incentive program that created 2.3 million untenable mortgages.
An entirely new class of home buyer is born. In San Diego, they call them leavers. They moved up, saving hundreds of thousands of dollars on their dream house. They will get a ding on their credit when their old property (now hopelessly under water) is foreclosed on. Whatever…
Now we have total economic collapse. We have “leavers” in the housing industry and we have “leavers” in the financial markets. The new administration is running some really left wing policies up the flag poll. The investment community is voting with its feet. They too are “leavers”. Leaving before the promised increase in taxes takes effect. Leaving before 401K nationalization…Leaving before spreading the wealth…
Many will say that this has been in the works for decades. That is true. We have been limping along for almost 5 decades. This all started with the Great Society programs of Lyndon Johnson. As first sold to the American people, the welfare state and all of its programs were never going to exceed 3% of worker’s income. No problem, just throw the taxes on the worker. For expedience, congress modeled the new taxes after social security. Three percent was insignificant. No big deal.
Then time starts to roll forward and we are creating a huge job pump. All of our manufacturing and related blue and white collar jobs are being pumped off shore. Payroll and corporate matching taxes are as high as 50-60% of every labor dollar in some states. Even worse than the direct job loss is the recurring loss of retained earnings and capital formation which accompanies the manufacturing process.
Roll the clock forward, each and every year raises the pay roll tax rates or the taxation limits, exports more jobs and accentuates the difference between affluence and poverty. The manufacturing jobs which were the stepping stones from lower to middle class are gone.
Let me try a congressional sales pitch….
Americans we propose to you an economic model wherein we will ship our raw materials, intellectual property, design innovation and manufacturing facilities over seas. We will then buy back the consumer goods produced, relinquish all associated taxes/financial assets and will use credit cards to purchase the items via our markets. We will then float additional federal debt instruments to adjust for the balance of payments. This will cost us about 2 trillion dollars (give or take a trillion). Sign here…
Nuts?
We now find our selves at the intersection of a perfect storm and opportunity. When your barn finally burns down you have two choices: 1) rebuild it, 2) build a better barn.
Our objective must be to restore America as the preeminent industrial and financial super power.
Let’s establish our key metrics for success up front. By the year 2015, we will have generated 20,000,000 new manufacturing jobs; we will have a positive balance of trade; 80 percent of Americans will own their own homes; 80 percent of all goods purchased in our markets will be stamped “Made in USA”; 60 percent of all new manufacturing plants will be “green” and will run on electricity generated with clean energy sources. An additional 20,000,000 new jobs will be generated which are not manufacturing based.
(Although not covered as part of this solution, my other posts describe providing universal health care, etc after the first order problem of economic/tax reform is addressed. )
We have three significant problems to confront:
1) We must restore confidence in the housing market and home owner ship as the key ingredient to personal investment wealth.
2) We must remove government from the cost of goods sold equation for goods made in America
3) We most start the process for mass production of clean energy.
Problem 1 Solution:
Create a resolution trust corporation to manage (not own) foreclosed properties. Provide incentives to investors/home buyers to purchase these homes for the price of the mortgage. This will require buying the interest rate (discount points) down. This may require 3 or 4 percent mortgages to be offered as an incentive. This will preserve the current mortgage and allow the equity basis of the property to rise rapidly as the housing markets recover. This should be done immediately. This approach conserves investment and leverages the built in price (in)elasticity of capital assets.
Problem 2 Solution:
All government taxes(Fica, Suta, Futa, Medicare, Medicaid)/fees which impact the cost of goods sold shall be eliminated and replaced with a federal sales tax. Food/school supplies, etc will be exempted. This process is covered in detail in my blog on tax reform. The new sales tax will be phased in after the economic recovery is well underway. If we can rebuild Japan, Europe, Asia, Iraq… then we can damn straight rebuild Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania….Sales tax will only be phased in after the economic recovery is well underway.
Problem 3 Solution:
Start with emphasis on electricity as the standard power required for all mechanical devices. Auxiliary power can be supplied to such devices, with preference given to solar, natural gas, and then carbon fuels.
Start immediate transition to nuclear and clean coal electrical power generation.
GPC Passing Through
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Election 2008
After 3 billion dollars, and a get out the vote campaign that signed up more voters than live in some precincts… The democrats have won. Congress managed to create a "perfect" economic storm, resulting in total economic collapse only 4 weeks before the election. This falls under the category of "you broke it you fix it"... my next post will deal with that.
On a more historical note, Barack Obama is the first non-white president of the
But there is no joy in Mudville….(Casey at the Bat, George Hearst, June, 3 1885, San Francisco Examiner).
November 5, 2008 …..I took the train to work expecting to see smiling and excited democrats every where. At the first stop, about one hundred and fifty people. All were looking down, seemingly depressed. Very few engaged in conversation. Young and middle aged whites, blacks and Latino. They shuffled their feet, as though the weight of the world had collapsed onto their shoulders. You would think their best friend had died or their dog ate their cat, or something. Next stop, another hundred, more standing and waiting for other trains. Twelve more stops, perhaps 500 people and hardly a single smile.
We arrived down town, and everyone scurried off the train. Pouring out onto the intersection and sidewalks, they seemed not to notice a thousand sanguine faces. All but one seemed intent on simply surviving the day. But that one….
She was a small black woman, perhaps 80. Impeccably attired in a woolen dress and topcoat, every democratic campaign button from 1964 to present adorned her lapel.
No one noticed her, except me.
She beamed with pride. I walked up to her and she smiled. I quietly said “Congratulations”. Tears formed in her eyes. No one else noticed. No one cared. She embodied Jesse Jackson, Martin Luther King and thousands of other 1960s civil rights advocates.
No one cared.
For most of us racism is a television artifact. Very few have ever seen or experienced racist behavior unless it is something you see on TV. There are parts of America where racism is alive and well. There is a new Black KKK in Arkansas, and the white version still meets. This is not most of America. We typically see the reports of their activities on TV. Affirmative action has been the rule of law our entire lives.
We have just had an historic moment, but for 99% of Americans, nothing has changed. The media is celebrating, but for the average American…Black, White, Latino, Asian...
Economy struggles (at best)
Stock market collapsed
401Ks in the tank
Unemployment on the rise
Society in turmoil
Terrorists lurk
Drug use is rampant
Families decaying
… better just keep on shuffling our feet
We owe, we owe …off to work we go.
GPC Passing Through
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Education Reform
Problem:
Education in the U.S. is expensive, biased and ineffective as administrated by the public sector.
I have to blame the deteriation of the public education system on the liberals.
Affirmative action has made government and related employment opportunities the exclusive property of liberals. This has created a conflict of interest in our educational system. It is no longer focused on educating students, but rather in pushing the political agenda of the left. Balance is gone. History and science are re-written or ignored. Teachers and administrators are focused towards maximizing their benefits rather than the quality of their product. Math and science are denigrated. Students are being “dummed” down.
Access is deliberately restricted, with allocation of scarce opportunities based on race, sex and/or other preferential demographics. Funding is skimmed “off the top” to the favor of administrators and to the disadvantage of students. Increasingly only the wealthy or politically preferred can access quality educational opportunities.
Whoa…. Stop the press. What are we doing?
As a poor white student in rural Appalachia, I learned first hand about hopelessness and racial/sexual discrimination in our educational system. As a “poor” white male, the only opportunities available to me were through military service. I was told clearly and often that “quotas” prevented my access to student aid, grants, scholarships and even admission to colleges. I also came to learn that less than 1 percent of my peers had any hope of ever attending college. They weren’t stupid or lazy. They were realistic. This is the poor white side of education in America. It mirrors the inner city situation. Our high school was “condemned” in 1954. Students were still attending it in the early 1970s. The areas which were collapsed or collapsing were simply cordoned off. Calculus was not "in" the curriculum. My father made minimum wage, if he could find work. I was picking my mother up, from one jail or another weekly. She was both alcohol and drug impaired. Thankfully, she eventually ended up serving a lengthy prison term.
Roll the clock forward and little has changed. Quotas are now illegal, replaced with “diversity goals”. The “poor” students in America still struggle as did I. The only difference is the entire middle class is now struggling with the same dysfunctional system.
Parents blame the schools, the government…
Schools blame the parents…
Students just feel hopless…
Solution:
"Hope is the fuel of learning" GPC 2008
First we must realize that as in the days of Abraham Lincoln; a viable school system is a willing and capable teacher at one end of a log and a willing and eager student at the other end of the log. We must restore hope to each and every student sitting on the end of any log, no matter how humble. This must be equally true for the young inner city black, the Appalacian or the middle aged student.
Implement 100% vouchers immediately. Let parents and students vote with their feet from kindergarten through PHD. Means test and prorate the vouchers after high school, and also for home schooling.
Means test example:
Voucher cost to student kindergarten through high school is zero.
Voucher cost to poor student college credit is less than 5 dolloars, cost to rich student college is ~65 dollars. Books and lab fees are also vouchered.
College, medical and technical trade school are part of the system of life long education. It is free or within the cost coverage of a voucher at any state sponsored school within the student’s state of residence. Any student may attend any of their state's colleges or trade schools and enroll in any curriculum of study. Pass the class and the voucher pays, fail the class and it’s your dime. If there aren’t enough seats expand the college. Eliminate the entire system of elites determining/rationing education. Admissions boards, tests, etc are eliminated at all state educational institutions. If a state does not provide educational institutions, vouchers will be provided for private institutions or out of state institutions world wide.
Now for the good part, the federal sales tax (see tax reform) and income tax will collect back the cost of education from an increasingly valuable base of human capital.
George
Education in the U.S. is expensive, biased and ineffective as administrated by the public sector.
I have to blame the deteriation of the public education system on the liberals.
Affirmative action has made government and related employment opportunities the exclusive property of liberals. This has created a conflict of interest in our educational system. It is no longer focused on educating students, but rather in pushing the political agenda of the left. Balance is gone. History and science are re-written or ignored. Teachers and administrators are focused towards maximizing their benefits rather than the quality of their product. Math and science are denigrated. Students are being “dummed” down.
Access is deliberately restricted, with allocation of scarce opportunities based on race, sex and/or other preferential demographics. Funding is skimmed “off the top” to the favor of administrators and to the disadvantage of students. Increasingly only the wealthy or politically preferred can access quality educational opportunities.
Whoa…. Stop the press. What are we doing?
As a poor white student in rural Appalachia, I learned first hand about hopelessness and racial/sexual discrimination in our educational system. As a “poor” white male, the only opportunities available to me were through military service. I was told clearly and often that “quotas” prevented my access to student aid, grants, scholarships and even admission to colleges. I also came to learn that less than 1 percent of my peers had any hope of ever attending college. They weren’t stupid or lazy. They were realistic. This is the poor white side of education in America. It mirrors the inner city situation. Our high school was “condemned” in 1954. Students were still attending it in the early 1970s. The areas which were collapsed or collapsing were simply cordoned off. Calculus was not "in" the curriculum. My father made minimum wage, if he could find work. I was picking my mother up, from one jail or another weekly. She was both alcohol and drug impaired. Thankfully, she eventually ended up serving a lengthy prison term.
Roll the clock forward and little has changed. Quotas are now illegal, replaced with “diversity goals”. The “poor” students in America still struggle as did I. The only difference is the entire middle class is now struggling with the same dysfunctional system.
Parents blame the schools, the government…
Schools blame the parents…
Students just feel hopless…
Solution:
"Hope is the fuel of learning" GPC 2008
First we must realize that as in the days of Abraham Lincoln; a viable school system is a willing and capable teacher at one end of a log and a willing and eager student at the other end of the log. We must restore hope to each and every student sitting on the end of any log, no matter how humble. This must be equally true for the young inner city black, the Appalacian or the middle aged student.
Implement 100% vouchers immediately. Let parents and students vote with their feet from kindergarten through PHD. Means test and prorate the vouchers after high school, and also for home schooling.
Means test example:
Voucher cost to student kindergarten through high school is zero.
Voucher cost to poor student college credit is less than 5 dolloars, cost to rich student college is ~65 dollars. Books and lab fees are also vouchered.
College, medical and technical trade school are part of the system of life long education. It is free or within the cost coverage of a voucher at any state sponsored school within the student’s state of residence. Any student may attend any of their state's colleges or trade schools and enroll in any curriculum of study. Pass the class and the voucher pays, fail the class and it’s your dime. If there aren’t enough seats expand the college. Eliminate the entire system of elites determining/rationing education. Admissions boards, tests, etc are eliminated at all state educational institutions. If a state does not provide educational institutions, vouchers will be provided for private institutions or out of state institutions world wide.
Now for the good part, the federal sales tax (see tax reform) and income tax will collect back the cost of education from an increasingly valuable base of human capital.
George
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Racism Defined
According to Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racism
"Racism has many definitions, the most common being that members of one racial group consider themselves intrinsically superior to members of other racial groups"
There are another hundred or so definitions. According to some more radical black leaders racism is white people. According to some radical white leaders (KKK, neo- nazis, etc) racism is black people. Others say racism is America.
Taken to the extreme every one is racist, simply by belonging to a race.
Hmmm this doesn't seem to be very useful.
Problem:
Define racism in fifty words or less in a manner that is testable and provide the basis for discussing racial issues without calling every one in the debate a racist.
Definition:
Racism is the personal expectation that a member of society should have preferential access to the services a society has to offer based on their perceived race.
Test:
Empirically, apply the definition to racial members of society at points in time when the assertion racist would be true .
Lets assume America, the south circa 1968. I happened to live in Georgia at that point in time and was participating in a bussing program to deliver me (a white student) to a black school. I had moved to George from Japan via a stop in California. The services provided by society included education, transportation, employment, housing, access to financial institutions and other services.
A portion of whites in the south were clearly racist. They had the expectation that they should have access exclusively to the best housing, schools, jobs, etc, simply because they were white.
Let’s assume Japan circa 1966. I happened to be living there. Japanese born of native Japanese had the personal expectation that only they would be granted access to the best housing, schools, jobs, etc simply because they were Japanese.
Ditto Singapore (Chinese) circa 1998.
Ditto South Africa (whites) circa 1980.
This is very interesting. This definition does not automatically categorize every member of a race as racist. Society itself cannot be racist, although it can promote racism by its policies. Only an individual can be a racist. An individual can also stop being a racist simply by changing their expectation for preferential treatment.
Let’s examine some recent “racists”. Reverend Jeremiah White. is definitely an angry Vietnam Veteran and black. (I am a Vietnam Era Veteran, so I do not condemn his anger). Pride and vanity in one’s cultural background is not racism. Reverend White worked very hard to build his religious career and does not seem to have expected preferential access to services. I don’t know this to be true, but it is not advertised as so. Reverend White is not a racist unless he has the expectation that preferential access to societal services should be provided to him because he is black. Is a black that expects equal access racist? No. How about a white or hispanic who expects equal access? No.
A member of the KKK is clearly a racist. The KKK expects a preferential access to services offered by society for whites.
If an individual acts out inappropriately, for example burning down a black or white church, are they a racist? No they are an arsonist. Are people prosecuting them for such an act racist? No they are part of the legal system.
Is Barack Obama’s grandmother a racist? Because she used inappropriate speech? No she is insensitive, raised in a different period of time. Racism depends on whether she expects preferential access to societal services based on her membership in the white race. Is Barack’s wife a racist? Ditto. The fact that she was not proud to be American is not racist.
This definition seems both correct and empowering. Most Americans are not racist. Our government policies are racist, but amazingly the vast majority of Americans are not. Those who are racist can be converted by education and discontinuation of racial discrimination by our government policies.
If racism is a behavior, then what is racial discrimination? It is providing preferential access to societal services based on race. It is a behavior, an acting out, based on racism. What is sexism? Ditto racism except plugin sex.
With a correct definition for racism, America can return to their roll as the great melting pot of the world’s cultures in a guiltless manner. Each member of a culture can be proud of their heritage and proud to be part of the world’s greatest experiment in freedom. Pride in America, imperfect as the country may be is also to be encouraged. Time to role up our sleeves and work together to become the next “greatest” generation.
More on racial discrimination and quality of access in a later blog.
George
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racism
"Racism has many definitions, the most common being that members of one racial group consider themselves intrinsically superior to members of other racial groups"
There are another hundred or so definitions. According to some more radical black leaders racism is white people. According to some radical white leaders (KKK, neo- nazis, etc) racism is black people. Others say racism is America.
Taken to the extreme every one is racist, simply by belonging to a race.
Hmmm this doesn't seem to be very useful.
Problem:
Define racism in fifty words or less in a manner that is testable and provide the basis for discussing racial issues without calling every one in the debate a racist.
Definition:
Racism is the personal expectation that a member of society should have preferential access to the services a society has to offer based on their perceived race.
Test:
Empirically, apply the definition to racial members of society at points in time when the assertion racist would be true .
Lets assume America, the south circa 1968. I happened to live in Georgia at that point in time and was participating in a bussing program to deliver me (a white student) to a black school. I had moved to George from Japan via a stop in California. The services provided by society included education, transportation, employment, housing, access to financial institutions and other services.
A portion of whites in the south were clearly racist. They had the expectation that they should have access exclusively to the best housing, schools, jobs, etc, simply because they were white.
Let’s assume Japan circa 1966. I happened to be living there. Japanese born of native Japanese had the personal expectation that only they would be granted access to the best housing, schools, jobs, etc simply because they were Japanese.
Ditto Singapore (Chinese) circa 1998.
Ditto South Africa (whites) circa 1980.
This is very interesting. This definition does not automatically categorize every member of a race as racist. Society itself cannot be racist, although it can promote racism by its policies. Only an individual can be a racist. An individual can also stop being a racist simply by changing their expectation for preferential treatment.
Let’s examine some recent “racists”. Reverend Jeremiah White. is definitely an angry Vietnam Veteran and black. (I am a Vietnam Era Veteran, so I do not condemn his anger). Pride and vanity in one’s cultural background is not racism. Reverend White worked very hard to build his religious career and does not seem to have expected preferential access to services. I don’t know this to be true, but it is not advertised as so. Reverend White is not a racist unless he has the expectation that preferential access to societal services should be provided to him because he is black. Is a black that expects equal access racist? No. How about a white or hispanic who expects equal access? No.
A member of the KKK is clearly a racist. The KKK expects a preferential access to services offered by society for whites.
If an individual acts out inappropriately, for example burning down a black or white church, are they a racist? No they are an arsonist. Are people prosecuting them for such an act racist? No they are part of the legal system.
Is Barack Obama’s grandmother a racist? Because she used inappropriate speech? No she is insensitive, raised in a different period of time. Racism depends on whether she expects preferential access to societal services based on her membership in the white race. Is Barack’s wife a racist? Ditto. The fact that she was not proud to be American is not racist.
This definition seems both correct and empowering. Most Americans are not racist. Our government policies are racist, but amazingly the vast majority of Americans are not. Those who are racist can be converted by education and discontinuation of racial discrimination by our government policies.
If racism is a behavior, then what is racial discrimination? It is providing preferential access to societal services based on race. It is a behavior, an acting out, based on racism. What is sexism? Ditto racism except plugin sex.
With a correct definition for racism, America can return to their roll as the great melting pot of the world’s cultures in a guiltless manner. Each member of a culture can be proud of their heritage and proud to be part of the world’s greatest experiment in freedom. Pride in America, imperfect as the country may be is also to be encouraged. Time to role up our sleeves and work together to become the next “greatest” generation.
More on racial discrimination and quality of access in a later blog.
George
Saturday, February 23, 2008
The war in IRAQ
Did you every look at a situation and just say Wow.....
A hard core liberal friend was lamenting the U.S. responsibility for everything wrong on the planet. All bad things are the fault of George Bush. I thought about his passionate rants, but concluded that George Bush was dealing with the symptoms. He is not the cause.
Yes we are responsible for the cause, sort of….
Let’s roll the clock back to 1948 when imperial rule in the Middle East ends, and throughout most of the world. The U.S. under the leadership of Harry Truman sought to end the reach and power of empires including France, Germany and Britain. Prior to the end of WWII, Germany fielded SS divisions originating from middle-eastern states including Iraq, Iran, Syria, Jordan… There is a reason the president of Iran says Hitler was a good man stopped short of achieving his goals.
http://notendur.centrum.is/~snorrigb/mufti4.htm
Now for our responsibility, we ended imperialism and required paying the middle-eastern Islamic dictatorships for their oil. Trillions of dollars have been pumped into the middle-east and have found their way into radical regimes. These funds are the stimulus for terrorism and dreams of world domination. We foolishly thought they would use the money to raise the standard of living of their people.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/opec.html">http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/opec.html
Roll the clock forward, 1960 and the “Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was founded in Baghdad, Iraq, in September 1960”. The sale and distribution of oil is now a monopoly.
…..Wow this is the only area in the current world where we have an inverted market. Instead of consumers driving competition for goods and services, we have suppliers driving competition to purchase. How stupid is that? Without our money they have oil. Oil is difficult to eat, doesn’t drink well. You can’t drive it, or wear it. After only a few days of production, if distribution stopped, virtually every OPEC member would be dealing with over flowing storage tanks and panic shutdown of wells. Without oil money, dictators would be herding goats, not buying a their 61st palace on the French Riviera. The ironic part of all this is that the consuming countries make and support the market, including ocean born distribution.
Problem:
The problem is an unrestricted consumer oil market with restricted competition to oil supply. The resultant runaway revenue is being used to fund terrorism and military aggression. The Middle-East is a collection of surrogates, manipulated conveniently by Islamic leaders. Fighting a ground war against Iraq and replacing Saddam Hussein sends a clear message that we can replace a dictator. This is the same message that the Islamic brotherhood sends when removing one of their dictators such as Anwar al-Sadat. Beyond the message, the winning of a war against any one surrogate is immaterial.
It doesn’t matter who we leave in power. As soon as we leave, the Islamic brotherhood will assassinate them, and empower their favorite dictator. Each time we extend our stay as part of nation building we simply lose face. We appear weakened by compassion. Each loss of face must be offset by an increasing show of force, to earn back "respect". This is a game which only extends the power struggle. We need to either show overwhelming force to the entire region, or define terms under which the struggle is redefined.
Solution:
1) Ending the current military confrontation(symptomatic).
As Theodore Roosevelt said "Walk softly and carry a big stick".
Walking softly will require funding Iraq "restoration" projects without U.S. oversight and meddling. Our presence should become nearly invisible within the next 12 months.
We have currently shown overwhelming force in Iraq via the surge. Our point has been made, respect has been earned. The Islamic dictators have turned to attacking softer targets such as France(last summer). We should position a strong strike force in Kurdistan or Northern Iraq. We must migrate a large portion of our naval forces to the the ocean areas ajacent to the middle east as part of preparations for a possible naval blockade. This force will be the big stick.
2) Restoring balance to the world's oil market(causal).
The more interesting and effective question is redefining the struggle.
Redefining the struggle requires forming a cartel equivalent to OPEC, but which is consumer based. This cartel will define the terms under which our market and distribution services may be accessed, the pricing for oil and terms under which payment will be rendered. The consumer cartel will control the oceans and distribution of oil. Just as OPEC forms the basis for financial and global terrorism, our cartel will form the basis for control of OPEC's financial and global terrorism. The key to this solution is 100% control of the oceans and willingness of member nations to withold payments.
Joint naval operations will escort oil tankers to their designated ports for product delivery. Oil deliveries will be catalogued and invoiced. Payments will be net 90 days. All payments currently in the “pipeline” will be witheld for 90 days. Payments will be released pending verification of supplier conformance to the consumer cartels policies. OPEC is free to enter into negotiations with the cartel regarding pricing. Proceeds from oil sales will be reduced to cover the reparation costs of world wide terrorism. This will constitute a tax on the world's richest dictators to assist the victims of their terrorism.
This will be tough to implement, for the first 180 days or so. OPEC's dictators will not take kindly to anyone challenging their monopoly. Consumers will try to cheat, under the influence of heavy OPEC incentives. Terrorist attacks will ramp up. The end is worth the means. Staying the course will restore balance to the world's oil market and eliminate the need for future military confrontation. Military confrontation is simply the George Bush's response to the symptom of an out of balance oil market.
This solution requires:
1) Oil consumer cartel to have and maintain control of the oceans (done),
2) Willingness of member countries to suffer an initial delay in oil deliveries (stock up before hand),
3) A military presence in the middle east (Iraq or Kurdistan done),
4) Willingness of member countries to manage float on a trillion dollars or so(done)
5) Willingness to play hard ball with religious dictators (there will be an initial increase in terrorism) particularly in European countries
George
A hard core liberal friend was lamenting the U.S. responsibility for everything wrong on the planet. All bad things are the fault of George Bush. I thought about his passionate rants, but concluded that George Bush was dealing with the symptoms. He is not the cause.
Yes we are responsible for the cause, sort of….
Let’s roll the clock back to 1948 when imperial rule in the Middle East ends, and throughout most of the world. The U.S. under the leadership of Harry Truman sought to end the reach and power of empires including France, Germany and Britain. Prior to the end of WWII, Germany fielded SS divisions originating from middle-eastern states including Iraq, Iran, Syria, Jordan… There is a reason the president of Iran says Hitler was a good man stopped short of achieving his goals.
http://notendur.centrum.is/~snorrigb/mufti4.htm
Now for our responsibility, we ended imperialism and required paying the middle-eastern Islamic dictatorships for their oil. Trillions of dollars have been pumped into the middle-east and have found their way into radical regimes. These funds are the stimulus for terrorism and dreams of world domination. We foolishly thought they would use the money to raise the standard of living of their people.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/opec.html">http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/opec.html
Roll the clock forward, 1960 and the “Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was founded in Baghdad, Iraq, in September 1960”. The sale and distribution of oil is now a monopoly.
…..Wow this is the only area in the current world where we have an inverted market. Instead of consumers driving competition for goods and services, we have suppliers driving competition to purchase. How stupid is that? Without our money they have oil. Oil is difficult to eat, doesn’t drink well. You can’t drive it, or wear it. After only a few days of production, if distribution stopped, virtually every OPEC member would be dealing with over flowing storage tanks and panic shutdown of wells. Without oil money, dictators would be herding goats, not buying a their 61st palace on the French Riviera. The ironic part of all this is that the consuming countries make and support the market, including ocean born distribution.
Problem:
The problem is an unrestricted consumer oil market with restricted competition to oil supply. The resultant runaway revenue is being used to fund terrorism and military aggression. The Middle-East is a collection of surrogates, manipulated conveniently by Islamic leaders. Fighting a ground war against Iraq and replacing Saddam Hussein sends a clear message that we can replace a dictator. This is the same message that the Islamic brotherhood sends when removing one of their dictators such as Anwar al-Sadat. Beyond the message, the winning of a war against any one surrogate is immaterial.
It doesn’t matter who we leave in power. As soon as we leave, the Islamic brotherhood will assassinate them, and empower their favorite dictator. Each time we extend our stay as part of nation building we simply lose face. We appear weakened by compassion. Each loss of face must be offset by an increasing show of force, to earn back "respect". This is a game which only extends the power struggle. We need to either show overwhelming force to the entire region, or define terms under which the struggle is redefined.
Solution:
1) Ending the current military confrontation(symptomatic).
As Theodore Roosevelt said "Walk softly and carry a big stick".
Walking softly will require funding Iraq "restoration" projects without U.S. oversight and meddling. Our presence should become nearly invisible within the next 12 months.
We have currently shown overwhelming force in Iraq via the surge. Our point has been made, respect has been earned. The Islamic dictators have turned to attacking softer targets such as France(last summer). We should position a strong strike force in Kurdistan or Northern Iraq. We must migrate a large portion of our naval forces to the the ocean areas ajacent to the middle east as part of preparations for a possible naval blockade. This force will be the big stick.
2) Restoring balance to the world's oil market(causal).
The more interesting and effective question is redefining the struggle.
Redefining the struggle requires forming a cartel equivalent to OPEC, but which is consumer based. This cartel will define the terms under which our market and distribution services may be accessed, the pricing for oil and terms under which payment will be rendered. The consumer cartel will control the oceans and distribution of oil. Just as OPEC forms the basis for financial and global terrorism, our cartel will form the basis for control of OPEC's financial and global terrorism. The key to this solution is 100% control of the oceans and willingness of member nations to withold payments.
Joint naval operations will escort oil tankers to their designated ports for product delivery. Oil deliveries will be catalogued and invoiced. Payments will be net 90 days. All payments currently in the “pipeline” will be witheld for 90 days. Payments will be released pending verification of supplier conformance to the consumer cartels policies. OPEC is free to enter into negotiations with the cartel regarding pricing. Proceeds from oil sales will be reduced to cover the reparation costs of world wide terrorism. This will constitute a tax on the world's richest dictators to assist the victims of their terrorism.
This will be tough to implement, for the first 180 days or so. OPEC's dictators will not take kindly to anyone challenging their monopoly. Consumers will try to cheat, under the influence of heavy OPEC incentives. Terrorist attacks will ramp up. The end is worth the means. Staying the course will restore balance to the world's oil market and eliminate the need for future military confrontation. Military confrontation is simply the George Bush's response to the symptom of an out of balance oil market.
This solution requires:
1) Oil consumer cartel to have and maintain control of the oceans (done),
2) Willingness of member countries to suffer an initial delay in oil deliveries (stock up before hand),
3) A military presence in the middle east (Iraq or Kurdistan done),
4) Willingness of member countries to manage float on a trillion dollars or so(done)
5) Willingness to play hard ball with religious dictators (there will be an initial increase in terrorism) particularly in European countries
George
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Illegal Aliens and Immigration Reform
Here we are 2008 and we are still having the same old debate. My great grandfather and his father (who were Native American on my mother's side) were sitting around the campfire and...the conversation probably sounded something like this: "I think we should get our guns and bows and arrows and shoot the next bunch, scalp 'em and then they'll think twice about sneaking onto our lands ..." "Then we'll start rounding them up and throwing them out". Roll the clock forward 40 years. "Wow that didn’t work we need a new approach, …I think we should call them immigrants, ... agreed".
The problem:
Morally, we cannot allow 20,000,000 people to live in this country with civil rights only one step removed from slavery. They work in the shadows, for lessor pay and under questionable conditions. Whether administered by pre-civil war southern democrats, or elites in modern day California or corporate conglomerates, slavery and semi-slavery should not be permissible. We the people cannot allow this. We embraced immigration after the civil war and welcomed workers who learned the language, merged into our culture, and defined by their existence the term "American". The 14th Amendment (1866) granted citizenship to all persons born or naturalized within the United States. The Sherman Antitrust Act (1890) protected their rights to engage in free and fair commerce. Illegal immigration must be stopped to protect the rights of the illegal immigrant. The problem is not people sneaking into the country through our airports, armed with visas and passports, who simply decide not to go home. It is people walking/riding/swimming across our southern border.
So shoot 'em, scalp 'em or round 'em up and send 'em home.
”That's not going to work. I think we should call them guest workers ... agreed. “
The solution:
Don't round anyone up. Don't fine or imprison anyone who is not guilty of a crime other than illegal immigration. Embrace countries and their citizens who are good neighbors and restrict U.S. entry by countries and their citizens who are not. Re-generate the U.S. industrial base, and do it in a way that raises both our and our good neighbors standard of living. As Mr. Spock used to say "Live long and prosper".
Step One:
We must implement tax reform as defined in my prior post on the topic. Replace all payroll taxes (not the income tax) with a national sales tax. This will allow manufacturing to return within our borders and to flourish. We can target investment credits for re-industrialization at certain geographic areas: rust belt states and Mexican/American border states, etc. We’ll need a lot of bilingual Americans for the re-industrialization effort along the Mexican/American border. Wonder were we can find them?
Step Two: We must enact legislation to revise the 14th amendment to grant citizenship only to those born in the U.S. to one or more parents who are U.S. citizens. This will eliminate the anchor baby problem. Not everyone born in the U.S. needs to become an U.S. citizen. We are no longer seeking people to settle and tame a vast wilderness. For those born here of foreign nationals, once they reach the age of consent (18), they may petition for a grant of U.S. citizenship, pending a criminal background investigation.
Step Three: We must reform our immigration policy with respect to countries that share geographic borders and achieve and retain a favored nation status (Canada and Mexico, Cuba?). These countries would be allowed to participate in an unrestricted guest worker program. A participant in the unrestricted guest worker program must be a citizen of a participating country (Mexico/Canada). They need to present appropriate proof of citizenship, at the time of entry and at the time of employment application. They will be eligible to receive an employment card and apply for guest worker benefits/privileges within their state of employment. Each state may define its own set of benefits/privileges. For states that do not, the guest worker would be eligible for the same benefits/privileges as a legal state resident, but those benefits/privileges would be time limited (expiration 90 days after completion of employment). As part of the application process for employment and/or benefits/privileges any guest worker who is in violation of state or federal law (high crimes and misdemeanors) may be subject to deportation/procecution. Guest workers may travel freely between their home country and the U.S. Any guest worker who completes 10 years in that status may begin the naturalization process and become eligible for citizenship upon completion. Lets be clear on this point. We are not a multi-cultural mess. To become an American, it takes work. Learn the language, learn the civics, obey the law and merge into the main stream. We have distinct and proud sub-cultures, but citizens are American first. If you don't want to be American first, then don't become a citizen.
Step Four:Participating countries must enjoin the U.S. in a "secure border" initiative which stops the flow of illegal immigrants (other nationalities/criminals) from crossing into the U.S. from Mexico/Canada. Failure to do so may result in loss of guest worker privileges for their citizens.
Step Five:
Guest worker privileges are reciprocal between the participating countries. U.S. citizens may choose to work in Mexico/Canada as guest workers.
George
The problem:
Morally, we cannot allow 20,000,000 people to live in this country with civil rights only one step removed from slavery. They work in the shadows, for lessor pay and under questionable conditions. Whether administered by pre-civil war southern democrats, or elites in modern day California or corporate conglomerates, slavery and semi-slavery should not be permissible. We the people cannot allow this. We embraced immigration after the civil war and welcomed workers who learned the language, merged into our culture, and defined by their existence the term "American". The 14th Amendment (1866) granted citizenship to all persons born or naturalized within the United States. The Sherman Antitrust Act (1890) protected their rights to engage in free and fair commerce. Illegal immigration must be stopped to protect the rights of the illegal immigrant. The problem is not people sneaking into the country through our airports, armed with visas and passports, who simply decide not to go home. It is people walking/riding/swimming across our southern border.
So shoot 'em, scalp 'em or round 'em up and send 'em home.
”That's not going to work. I think we should call them guest workers ... agreed. “
The solution:
Don't round anyone up. Don't fine or imprison anyone who is not guilty of a crime other than illegal immigration. Embrace countries and their citizens who are good neighbors and restrict U.S. entry by countries and their citizens who are not. Re-generate the U.S. industrial base, and do it in a way that raises both our and our good neighbors standard of living. As Mr. Spock used to say "Live long and prosper".
Step One:
We must implement tax reform as defined in my prior post on the topic. Replace all payroll taxes (not the income tax) with a national sales tax. This will allow manufacturing to return within our borders and to flourish. We can target investment credits for re-industrialization at certain geographic areas: rust belt states and Mexican/American border states, etc. We’ll need a lot of bilingual Americans for the re-industrialization effort along the Mexican/American border. Wonder were we can find them?
Step Two: We must enact legislation to revise the 14th amendment to grant citizenship only to those born in the U.S. to one or more parents who are U.S. citizens. This will eliminate the anchor baby problem. Not everyone born in the U.S. needs to become an U.S. citizen. We are no longer seeking people to settle and tame a vast wilderness. For those born here of foreign nationals, once they reach the age of consent (18), they may petition for a grant of U.S. citizenship, pending a criminal background investigation.
Step Three: We must reform our immigration policy with respect to countries that share geographic borders and achieve and retain a favored nation status (Canada and Mexico, Cuba?). These countries would be allowed to participate in an unrestricted guest worker program. A participant in the unrestricted guest worker program must be a citizen of a participating country (Mexico/Canada). They need to present appropriate proof of citizenship, at the time of entry and at the time of employment application. They will be eligible to receive an employment card and apply for guest worker benefits/privileges within their state of employment. Each state may define its own set of benefits/privileges. For states that do not, the guest worker would be eligible for the same benefits/privileges as a legal state resident, but those benefits/privileges would be time limited (expiration 90 days after completion of employment). As part of the application process for employment and/or benefits/privileges any guest worker who is in violation of state or federal law (high crimes and misdemeanors) may be subject to deportation/procecution. Guest workers may travel freely between their home country and the U.S. Any guest worker who completes 10 years in that status may begin the naturalization process and become eligible for citizenship upon completion. Lets be clear on this point. We are not a multi-cultural mess. To become an American, it takes work. Learn the language, learn the civics, obey the law and merge into the main stream. We have distinct and proud sub-cultures, but citizens are American first. If you don't want to be American first, then don't become a citizen.
Step Four:Participating countries must enjoin the U.S. in a "secure border" initiative which stops the flow of illegal immigrants (other nationalities/criminals) from crossing into the U.S. from Mexico/Canada. Failure to do so may result in loss of guest worker privileges for their citizens.
Step Five:
Guest worker privileges are reciprocal between the participating countries. U.S. citizens may choose to work in Mexico/Canada as guest workers.
George
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Universal Health Care
Universal Health Care
Should it be a government run catastrophe; or an infrastructure core component for a modern society?
The left would say that socialism's time has come. The right would say only a fool would task the government with managing a third of our gross national product and determining our quality of life.As usual, I have to side with the middle on this one. Left to the lefties, our health care system will simply transfer wealth from the people to the government and their minions (politicians, lobbyists, bureaucrats, and lawyers). Right thinkers will transfer the people’s wealth to corporate health care conglomerates and their minions (politicians, lobbyists, bureaucrats, and lawyers). We are already funding all the minions plus health care. We can surely afford just health care. Do we really care about paying the minions?
We’ll discuss this further as part of the solution.
Step back into history and view this problem from a correct vantage point. When the pioneers were settling the west, they gathered up their possessions, tools and energy and headed out in covered wagons. The stopped along the way to fight Indians (my great grandfather and his friends), search for food, water and occasional entertainment. Upon arrival at their destination, they built their barn and maybe a sod or log cabin. They and their livestock could live in the barn if necessary. Each settler was expected to support themselves and build and maintain their own farm or ranch. Unfortunately from time to time, catastrophe could and did strike their barn. Neighbors would arrive in mass to restore and rebuild the barn as best they could to prevent further loss and suffering.
Back to the future, we are no longer an agrarian society. Our endeavors depend on our health and its corresponding labor output to build and maintain our families and wealth. For better or worse, health has replaced the barn. When a catastrophic illness strikes, we need our neighbors. We shouldn’t need them every day or all the time. We need them for the “big one”, the catastrophe.
Problem:Health care costs too much.
Note: Lobbyists and their minions have already won the debate by defining health care as health insurance. Politicians from the left/right, and their minions, have been so successful at shaping this issue that we commonly refer to this problem as the need for universal health insurance or affordable health insurance. The taxpayers need to make up the difference. Minions need to be paid.
Health care in the U.S. is abundantly available. Visit any hospital or clinic and they have spare beds, chairs and service providers. Appointments can be made for this morning, afternoon or evening. Doctors and nurses are first rate. Visit any pharmacy and have your prescription filled in 15 minutes or less.
Abundance and quality of service is not the problem.The problem is that a visit to the doctor for routine care is beyond affordability for the poor and lower middle class. They bypass the $135 doctor visit and head for the “free” emergency room. There the $135 doctor visit is billed by the service conglomerates for $5000-$50,000. The doctor still receives about $60. Minions get the rest. Wouldn’t it be great to be a minion?
Solution:
The solution is to lower the cost of health care and to provide basic wellness services to everyone. A healthy society is far more affordable.
Step one is to empower the people to stop being extorted by minions. Routine health care should be affordable, on the order of $25 or $35 dollars per visit. This can be achieved by not paying two classes of minions: 1) lobbyists, 2 lawyers. We will define a class of service provider called a general/family wellness practitioner. This type of practitioner will not be allowed to perform any type of major surgical procedure. Their practice will treat/diagnose and manage the basic medical needs of the average family/individual and will be limited to procedures/treatment commensurate with meeting those needs. Emergency care, beyond their charters, will not be denied if dictated by extra ordinary circumstances (a heart attack occurs on the sidewalk out side). Doctors and their family practices will be liable for malpractice, but the maximum aggregate fines per doctor will not exceed $10,000(annual) and $30,000 lifetime. After 30,000 in fines the doctor’s license will l be reviewed and possibly revoked. Doctors will be allowed to advertise/publish rates and will be subject to standard business practice complaints/evaluations.
Analogy: medical retail mom and pop….WalMart…enabled by limited tort reform
Step two is to empower the people to stop being extorted by minions. As we explored earlier, the problem won’t be the routine health care issues such as flu, sinusitis, childhood immunizations, etc. The problem is the big one. Once the service conglomerates have you in “their” system, and you have been diagnosed with cancer, heart disease, organ failure, etc.; your barn has just burned down. Bankruptcy, loss of retirement funds, home foreclosure, all the good stuff lawyers, insurance conglomerates, politicians and lobbyists spend their time dreaming about has just fallen on you. We the people allow this, really? Universal health care should be part the national plumbing (as my friend Cuyler so aptly describes it). In the case of the big one (expenses > 50,000 per year for non elective services), a simple system of universal health care should be provided. Each person over the age of 18 should pay into a national health catastrophic insurance fund. Initially the insurance will be the dreaded “Government Option”. The premium will be determined by annual assessment and evaluation. Ideally, the charge should be on the order of $10-15 up to $35-40 per month (needs tested ability to pay). For those who cannot work/afford the minimal monthly fee, their state government will make the contribution on their behalf (i.e., the mentally disabled, physically impaired). Surplus revenue will be carried forward to lower the overall system costs, deficits accrued will be carried forward as charges against future premiums.
Analogy: medical equivalent of automobile liability insurance. Comprehensive and luxury policies may build upon basic liability or the consumer is free to use cash, health savings accounts, etc…States providing their own portable catastrophic plans may opt out of “Government Option”.
Step three is to empower the people to shop for medical services or to purchase health insurance as they wish. Health insurance, Health Savings Accounts (HAS) or simply paying the doctor directly are all now possible. The consumer is back in control and basic wellness services are a market commodity. Should a company and or state/federal government offer health insurance, it would by supplemental. The market can now bind consumer with provider because the elimination of catastrophic loss frees consumers and providers. Let the free market negotiations and competition begin. Health insurance costs will decline since catastrophic insurance is already provided, and basic services are abundant and lower cost. Medical information is the personal property of the consumer. Popular search engines (Google, MSN, etc) will be encouraged to provide services for the recording and, if authorized public search of medical records by authorized medical service providers. Any medical provider may publish the file of their patient, and review what they have published. Only those providers authorized by the patient may search files they did not originate. A patient may search their own information at any time.
Analogy…Google search for health records
Step four is to increase the availability of family practitioners. Medical school scholarships will be available to any academically qualified student, willing to work in a family practice for a minimum of 5 years after graduation (up to 250,000). The goal is to promote a health society. With people now responsible for the cost of their own health, healthy people will become the norm.
Now for the universal coverage part, everyone is now covered for the big one (catastrophic care). All families and individuals should be able to afford basic wellness, except the most impoverished. They will simply be given a coupon book (3 per individual/per year, renewable on demand, available at every emergency room or wellness clinic). Coupons(physical or electronic) can be redeemed at any family practice provider. Generic drugs will be provided as prescribed by the family practitioner, and paid for by the individual, for those to poor to pay a coupon will be provided and reimbursed by surplus catastrophic funds or taxes.
Minions, minions, minions.... they will lose a lot of money. Do we feel bad? Should we grieve for the lawyers, politicians, and lobbyists of the world? I think not, after all they will have lower cost health care.
Availability:
Coverage ~99% (some will do anything not to participate). Even those who dodge, can still get a free coupon and wellness care (needs tested).
Funding:
Self funding via portable, catastrophic health insurance
42 Billion increase in annual marginal revenue(we already subsidize all the catastrophic cost).(140,000,000 * 25 dollars per month(avg) * 12 months)
1 Dollar per month catastrophic health insurance premium surcharge for the wellness clinics/medical education start up costs ~1.6 billion. (140,000,000 * 1 * 12)
Cost reduction:
~7..10 Trillion over the next 5 years. 30 percent of GDP(12 trillion) * .3 reduction in cost.
Eliminates over-prescription of services
Eliminates wasteful emergency room visits
Reduction in mal practice insurance/operating costs.
Reduction in prescription drug costs.
Competitive market place reductions in service pricing for routine care.
George
Should it be a government run catastrophe; or an infrastructure core component for a modern society?
The left would say that socialism's time has come. The right would say only a fool would task the government with managing a third of our gross national product and determining our quality of life.As usual, I have to side with the middle on this one. Left to the lefties, our health care system will simply transfer wealth from the people to the government and their minions (politicians, lobbyists, bureaucrats, and lawyers). Right thinkers will transfer the people’s wealth to corporate health care conglomerates and their minions (politicians, lobbyists, bureaucrats, and lawyers). We are already funding all the minions plus health care. We can surely afford just health care. Do we really care about paying the minions?
We’ll discuss this further as part of the solution.
Step back into history and view this problem from a correct vantage point. When the pioneers were settling the west, they gathered up their possessions, tools and energy and headed out in covered wagons. The stopped along the way to fight Indians (my great grandfather and his friends), search for food, water and occasional entertainment. Upon arrival at their destination, they built their barn and maybe a sod or log cabin. They and their livestock could live in the barn if necessary. Each settler was expected to support themselves and build and maintain their own farm or ranch. Unfortunately from time to time, catastrophe could and did strike their barn. Neighbors would arrive in mass to restore and rebuild the barn as best they could to prevent further loss and suffering.
Back to the future, we are no longer an agrarian society. Our endeavors depend on our health and its corresponding labor output to build and maintain our families and wealth. For better or worse, health has replaced the barn. When a catastrophic illness strikes, we need our neighbors. We shouldn’t need them every day or all the time. We need them for the “big one”, the catastrophe.
Problem:Health care costs too much.
Note: Lobbyists and their minions have already won the debate by defining health care as health insurance. Politicians from the left/right, and their minions, have been so successful at shaping this issue that we commonly refer to this problem as the need for universal health insurance or affordable health insurance. The taxpayers need to make up the difference. Minions need to be paid.
Health care in the U.S. is abundantly available. Visit any hospital or clinic and they have spare beds, chairs and service providers. Appointments can be made for this morning, afternoon or evening. Doctors and nurses are first rate. Visit any pharmacy and have your prescription filled in 15 minutes or less.
Abundance and quality of service is not the problem.The problem is that a visit to the doctor for routine care is beyond affordability for the poor and lower middle class. They bypass the $135 doctor visit and head for the “free” emergency room. There the $135 doctor visit is billed by the service conglomerates for $5000-$50,000. The doctor still receives about $60. Minions get the rest. Wouldn’t it be great to be a minion?
Solution:
The solution is to lower the cost of health care and to provide basic wellness services to everyone. A healthy society is far more affordable.
Step one is to empower the people to stop being extorted by minions. Routine health care should be affordable, on the order of $25 or $35 dollars per visit. This can be achieved by not paying two classes of minions: 1) lobbyists, 2 lawyers. We will define a class of service provider called a general/family wellness practitioner. This type of practitioner will not be allowed to perform any type of major surgical procedure. Their practice will treat/diagnose and manage the basic medical needs of the average family/individual and will be limited to procedures/treatment commensurate with meeting those needs. Emergency care, beyond their charters, will not be denied if dictated by extra ordinary circumstances (a heart attack occurs on the sidewalk out side). Doctors and their family practices will be liable for malpractice, but the maximum aggregate fines per doctor will not exceed $10,000(annual) and $30,000 lifetime. After 30,000 in fines the doctor’s license will l be reviewed and possibly revoked. Doctors will be allowed to advertise/publish rates and will be subject to standard business practice complaints/evaluations.
Analogy: medical retail mom and pop….WalMart…enabled by limited tort reform
Step two is to empower the people to stop being extorted by minions. As we explored earlier, the problem won’t be the routine health care issues such as flu, sinusitis, childhood immunizations, etc. The problem is the big one. Once the service conglomerates have you in “their” system, and you have been diagnosed with cancer, heart disease, organ failure, etc.; your barn has just burned down. Bankruptcy, loss of retirement funds, home foreclosure, all the good stuff lawyers, insurance conglomerates, politicians and lobbyists spend their time dreaming about has just fallen on you. We the people allow this, really? Universal health care should be part the national plumbing (as my friend Cuyler so aptly describes it). In the case of the big one (expenses > 50,000 per year for non elective services), a simple system of universal health care should be provided. Each person over the age of 18 should pay into a national health catastrophic insurance fund. Initially the insurance will be the dreaded “Government Option”. The premium will be determined by annual assessment and evaluation. Ideally, the charge should be on the order of $10-15 up to $35-40 per month (needs tested ability to pay). For those who cannot work/afford the minimal monthly fee, their state government will make the contribution on their behalf (i.e., the mentally disabled, physically impaired). Surplus revenue will be carried forward to lower the overall system costs, deficits accrued will be carried forward as charges against future premiums.
Analogy: medical equivalent of automobile liability insurance. Comprehensive and luxury policies may build upon basic liability or the consumer is free to use cash, health savings accounts, etc…States providing their own portable catastrophic plans may opt out of “Government Option”.
Step three is to empower the people to shop for medical services or to purchase health insurance as they wish. Health insurance, Health Savings Accounts (HAS) or simply paying the doctor directly are all now possible. The consumer is back in control and basic wellness services are a market commodity. Should a company and or state/federal government offer health insurance, it would by supplemental. The market can now bind consumer with provider because the elimination of catastrophic loss frees consumers and providers. Let the free market negotiations and competition begin. Health insurance costs will decline since catastrophic insurance is already provided, and basic services are abundant and lower cost. Medical information is the personal property of the consumer. Popular search engines (Google, MSN, etc) will be encouraged to provide services for the recording and, if authorized public search of medical records by authorized medical service providers. Any medical provider may publish the file of their patient, and review what they have published. Only those providers authorized by the patient may search files they did not originate. A patient may search their own information at any time.
Analogy…Google search for health records
Step four is to increase the availability of family practitioners. Medical school scholarships will be available to any academically qualified student, willing to work in a family practice for a minimum of 5 years after graduation (up to 250,000). The goal is to promote a health society. With people now responsible for the cost of their own health, healthy people will become the norm.
Now for the universal coverage part, everyone is now covered for the big one (catastrophic care). All families and individuals should be able to afford basic wellness, except the most impoverished. They will simply be given a coupon book (3 per individual/per year, renewable on demand, available at every emergency room or wellness clinic). Coupons(physical or electronic) can be redeemed at any family practice provider. Generic drugs will be provided as prescribed by the family practitioner, and paid for by the individual, for those to poor to pay a coupon will be provided and reimbursed by surplus catastrophic funds or taxes.
Minions, minions, minions.... they will lose a lot of money. Do we feel bad? Should we grieve for the lawyers, politicians, and lobbyists of the world? I think not, after all they will have lower cost health care.
Availability:
Coverage ~99% (some will do anything not to participate). Even those who dodge, can still get a free coupon and wellness care (needs tested).
Funding:
Self funding via portable, catastrophic health insurance
42 Billion increase in annual marginal revenue(we already subsidize all the catastrophic cost).(140,000,000 * 25 dollars per month(avg) * 12 months)
1 Dollar per month catastrophic health insurance premium surcharge for the wellness clinics/medical education start up costs ~1.6 billion. (140,000,000 * 1 * 12)
Cost reduction:
~7..10 Trillion over the next 5 years. 30 percent of GDP(12 trillion) * .3 reduction in cost.
Eliminates over-prescription of services
Eliminates wasteful emergency room visits
Reduction in mal practice insurance/operating costs.
Reduction in prescription drug costs.
Competitive market place reductions in service pricing for routine care.
George
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Tax Reform
Wow, the US economy is once again under attack as part of the 2008 elections.
Historically, the sitting congress attempts to spoil the economy for the opposition president's party in the spring of the election year. Then both sides try to ride in on their white horses to save the day. 1992... Its the economy stupid defeats Bush senior, as defense contracts all over the country are cancelled and unemployment soars... 2000...Its the economy stupid, as gas prices sky rocket and the Bush/Chenney team rides in to control big oil... 2008... the housing industry is in collapse, recession looms... and both sides are beating their white steeds to a pulp for a quick stimulus tax give away.
Enough.
The problem with the U.S. economy stems from a series of poor decisions arising out of the great society programs in the 1960s. Do you believe LBJ actually passed the welfare state entitlements claiming they would never exceed 1 % as individual rates or 3 % in total?
Well, roll the clock forward and we are somewhere around 35+ %. Poorer Americans fica,suta,futa contributations and their employer matching contributions far exceed their income tax obligations.
The point to be made is not that the totality of taxes is too high, but that the way the tax is collected is harmfull to the economy and to the very workers paying it. In a capitalist economy, it you want to limit the usage of a resource, you tax it. In the U.S. we tax our own labor, ship our raw materials and designs over seas, and then we buy the goods produced using credit? Why because the cost of goods sold, for products manufactured in the US is too high.
Wow, if I was actually proposing this to most Americans, they'd throw me out on my ear.
To make matters worse, the cap on these taxes keeps rising (for both the employee and the employeer) and employers adjust their budgets by reducing increases in payroll. Simultaneously, employers are forced to layoff blue collar manufacturing workers and we find ourselves with a two tier work force.
Stop the madness. It takes nothing but a pen. I have read so many tax reform plans, that my head begins to spin. Most are either extremely high risk or miss the problem entirely. The "Fair" tax proposes to eiliminate the income tax and replace it with a sales tax. Are they nuts, think of the risk to Americans invested in tax preferred assets such as houses, 401k plans, etc. Others want to simplify the income tax. One could argue that a fairer income tax can be devised, but this is a second order error. The solution proposed here does not modify the current income tax, only the labor based payroll taxes (FICA, FUTA, SUTA, etc).
Problem:
We are shipping our jobs, wealth and manufacturing base over seas as part of the payroll tax fiasco. The side benefits are salary compression and increasing trade deficits.
Solution:
Eliminate all payroll taxes immediately and replace them with a national sales tax. This will be applied uniformly to goods produced over seas or in America. Goods produced in America and sold overseas will carry no tax, making them effective competitors both in domestic and foreign markets. Manufacturing in the U.S. and its associated blue collar jobs will make a come back. We'll find ourselves needing 30 million guest workers. They will pay income tax and sales tax but not "entitlement" taxes. Funding the baby boomers may not be impossible after all.
Step one to fixing America, starts with stopping the madness with respect to how we tax. Lets deal with the first order problem, the payroll taxes. Income tax fairness can be resolved later after we deal with the problems brought on by an economic boom and sales tax surplus. Should make rework of income taxes somewhat simpler.
George
Historically, the sitting congress attempts to spoil the economy for the opposition president's party in the spring of the election year. Then both sides try to ride in on their white horses to save the day. 1992... Its the economy stupid defeats Bush senior, as defense contracts all over the country are cancelled and unemployment soars... 2000...Its the economy stupid, as gas prices sky rocket and the Bush/Chenney team rides in to control big oil... 2008... the housing industry is in collapse, recession looms... and both sides are beating their white steeds to a pulp for a quick stimulus tax give away.
Enough.
The problem with the U.S. economy stems from a series of poor decisions arising out of the great society programs in the 1960s. Do you believe LBJ actually passed the welfare state entitlements claiming they would never exceed 1 % as individual rates or 3 % in total?
Well, roll the clock forward and we are somewhere around 35+ %. Poorer Americans fica,suta,futa contributations and their employer matching contributions far exceed their income tax obligations.
The point to be made is not that the totality of taxes is too high, but that the way the tax is collected is harmfull to the economy and to the very workers paying it. In a capitalist economy, it you want to limit the usage of a resource, you tax it. In the U.S. we tax our own labor, ship our raw materials and designs over seas, and then we buy the goods produced using credit? Why because the cost of goods sold, for products manufactured in the US is too high.
Wow, if I was actually proposing this to most Americans, they'd throw me out on my ear.
To make matters worse, the cap on these taxes keeps rising (for both the employee and the employeer) and employers adjust their budgets by reducing increases in payroll. Simultaneously, employers are forced to layoff blue collar manufacturing workers and we find ourselves with a two tier work force.
Stop the madness. It takes nothing but a pen. I have read so many tax reform plans, that my head begins to spin. Most are either extremely high risk or miss the problem entirely. The "Fair" tax proposes to eiliminate the income tax and replace it with a sales tax. Are they nuts, think of the risk to Americans invested in tax preferred assets such as houses, 401k plans, etc. Others want to simplify the income tax. One could argue that a fairer income tax can be devised, but this is a second order error. The solution proposed here does not modify the current income tax, only the labor based payroll taxes (FICA, FUTA, SUTA, etc).
Problem:
We are shipping our jobs, wealth and manufacturing base over seas as part of the payroll tax fiasco. The side benefits are salary compression and increasing trade deficits.
Solution:
Eliminate all payroll taxes immediately and replace them with a national sales tax. This will be applied uniformly to goods produced over seas or in America. Goods produced in America and sold overseas will carry no tax, making them effective competitors both in domestic and foreign markets. Manufacturing in the U.S. and its associated blue collar jobs will make a come back. We'll find ourselves needing 30 million guest workers. They will pay income tax and sales tax but not "entitlement" taxes. Funding the baby boomers may not be impossible after all.
Step one to fixing America, starts with stopping the madness with respect to how we tax. Lets deal with the first order problem, the payroll taxes. Income tax fairness can be resolved later after we deal with the problems brought on by an economic boom and sales tax surplus. Should make rework of income taxes somewhat simpler.
George
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